The United States’ intervention in foreign affairs has been a source of contention since its founding. Among those hotly debated interventions is the nearly nine-year Iraq war in which an estimated 100,000 Iraqi’s and 4,000 Americans died. In an effort to learn from mistakes of the past, the present study aims to assess the change in deaths attributed to insurgent forces and coalition forces over time in each of Iraq’s 104 districts. Using Spatial Wight Matrix and Hot Spot Analysis tools, possible hot spots in coalition attributed and insurgent attributed deaths in each of the districts were identified and visualized over time. The results of the analysis can be paired with established theory on Counterinsurgent (COIN) strategy to predict expected resistance to incoming counterinsurgent forces over the course of the war. These analyses can be used to better inform future foreign intervention on the behalf of the United States.
6 thoughts on “Analysis of Deaths in the Iraq War Over Time and Its Application”
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This project stemmed from a previous project I completed on the most effective counterinsurgency (COIN) strategy for the Iraq War. I’d love to tell you a bit more about how this information can help shape foreign affairs and the United States’ involvement in foreign intervention. The most interesting part of the results to me was watching how hotspots appeared frequently in more populated areas of Iraq. As one would assume, higher populated areas are more likely to be centers of violence and contested regions, as opposed to more rural districts. Additionally, insurgent strongholds and weaponry reserves were frequently found in higher populated areas.
Hi Alli,
Great poster! From start to finish, your work is extremely informative and useful in providing guidance for future conflict overseas. Although I am unfamiliar with the topic at hand, the introduction and reasoning behind asking certain research questions in is very clear, and the bulleted format of the discussion helps break down the results. Also, cool animation! I’d be interested to see how these maps compare with those produced from other wars.
I’m glad you found it informative Brooke! I also think that comparing these results to those of other American Foreign interventions would be very interesting and useful. I know there is some available data out there on the counterinsurgency strategies used in the Vietnam war, so that would be the next place I would love to see similar analyses done. Hopefully over time the results of these studies can be used proactively to inform counterinsurgency strategies in real time foreign interventions and improve the results.Â
Good work Alli! I know very little about the topic, but find watching the animations is endlessly fascinating when they’re paired up with each other. The very initial Coalition forces heatmap is striking in how widespread and violent it is. And then the growth and movement of Insurgent violence around the country as different regions become hotspots. Watching the interaction between the two animations is especially interesting, particularly in the Ka’im and Ramadi districts. There’s certainly a lot of interpretation to be done here.
Which leads me to ask, What is your major takeaway from this analysis? I.e. what does it suggest to you about the way the war in Iraq unfolded? or locations where things went right/wrong? or other interpretations I am not informed enough to know to ask about?
Thanks for the question James! One think that I think is significant to point out is the correlation of insurgent hotspots with the Anbar Awakening. The Anbar Awakening occurred in late 2006 when on the brink of retreating, U.S. forces received support from Sunni tribes in Anbar to fight against the insurgents. The awakening spread to other areas and was a pivotal moment in the Iraq war, one which U.S. forces have since attempted to replicate later on and in other foreign interventions. The effects of the Anbar awakening can be seen in the insurgent map as the hotspots become more intense during this time and eventually shrink down close to nothing as insurgent forces dispersed. These events and others of the Iraq War can be seen through the story the hotspots tell in each of the maps and can hopefully be used going forward to help indicate the direction and strength of future foreign interventions.
Alli, interesting spatiotemporal work here–after initial deaths by U.S.-led invasion, there are sporadic peaks that tend to cluster in the central area, especially in 2004 and 2007 (I think). These are raw death counts, correct? I wonder what deaths rates would look like? IE number of war-related deaths against the population in each province? Also, I wonder about the distribution of different TYPES of lethal events would look like–e.g. events involving small number of individuals vs. mass casualty events. I believe the Human Rights Data Analysis Group (https://hrdag.org/) documented systematic under-reporting of events at the smaller end (with 1 or 2 deaths), and that those tend to be internecine in nature. In any case, this is an excellent first sounding and starting point for further analysis.